I’ve been rather lax in my hockey journal because I’ve been in another country for more than a week.  Now, rarely is that an excuse, but it’s the USA.  And finding a hockey game here is like...well, water in the desert.

So, my predictions were 5/8 in the first round.  6/8 if you count my last minute change of heart towards Boston.  That’s not bad (I’m in Vegas, believe me those are good odds) but I’m hoping for a little more consistency here in round 2.  My prediction for the cup final is no longer possible.  I do still think Chicago will represent the west (they’ll beat San Jose in the semis) but Washington has to wait a year.  Pittsburgh was the second best team coming out of the east (in my eyes) but if all went as planned they’d have played Washington in the 2^nd round.  When they met last year the series went all 7 games and Pittsburgh just squeaked by.  I thought Washington had the depth and experience to win that war this year but I was wrong.  Now I think the Pens will get to the Cup again at the expense of the Boston Bruins.  Here’s a more in-depth analysis/snide commentary.

Pittsburgh Penguins (3^rd in the East) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8^th in the East)

Rarely does it happen that seeds #1 & #2 get knocked out in the first round.  But that’s exactly what’s happened this time.  Washington & Buffalo both got bounced and so the Penguins are the top seed remaining in the east.  Mathematically they should have finished 2^nd anyway, so here we are.

They play the miraculous Montreal.  Washington must have done something deep, dark and terrible to the hockey gods to have handed such an opportunity to the Canadiens.  It’s not that the Habs are that bad a team.  It’s just that no sane human likes them and no one with a soul will wear their jersey.  They did make the playoffs (barely) and they did beat the Caps (barely) but they will not beat the Penguins.  Pittsburgh has too many weapons, too much depth, too much experience and too much awesomeness.  Montreal rode the back of Halak (their goalie) for the last 3 games of the series.  He was just spectacular.  He was Rick Astley in the very early 90’s.  Everyone thought he was the shit.  And then – like in Dallas – we woke up and pretended the bad dream had never happened. Oh sure you’ll still hear him in kitschy tourist places or bad shopping malls, but that’s because it’s too creepy if there’s no sound at all.  Anyway, Halak was like that.  Fucking Superman for three games.  The coach of the Caps said he was, ‘out of his mind’ and ‘if he played like that anything was possible.’  Perhaps he just thrives on the pressure of being up against the wall because he was fairly unspectacular in game 1 vs Pittsburgh.  In fact, he was yanked out of the net and the Pens still went on to run over Montreal.  Even if Halak has a bounce back, I don’t think it’ll be enough to beat the reigning champs.  They just seem to have a 4^th & 5^th gear that no other team has shown this playoffs.

X-Factors: Halak won the last series by himself.  Seriously.  By himself.  He stopped something like 140 shots in 3 games and – don’t quote me on this – I think he had 1 goal and 1 assist per game as well.  He could lengthen the series but I don’t think he has enough in the tank (or experience) to win it himself again.  And the rest of the team is just a bunch of hard working guys who will be overwhelmed by Crosby, Malkin, Staal & Gonchar.

Prediction: Pittsburgh wins 4 games to 2.  It’ll take that long because they just seem to like playing hockey and they’re never fond of ending a series too soon.

Boston Bruins (6^th in the East) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (7^th in the East)

Again, it’s very strange to see two such low seeds playing each other.  Everyone always talk about how the playoffs are “a whole new season.”  Here’s the evidence.  I was wrong about both of these teams in my first round predictions so how can I be trusted to make the right decision this time?  Marc Savard will help me do that.  He was Boston’s leading scorer and they won without him in round 1.  Mostly due to the exemplary goaltending of Tuukka Rask.  Almost every year a new goaltender proves himself in the playoffs and becomes the unarguable starter for seasons to come.  It’s a coming of age story and this year the protagonist is Rask.  The Flyers play a real team game.  Grind, grind, grind away with very few mistakes and capitalize on the ones their opponents make.  It’s almost as if they learned the New Jersey (who they beat soundly) playbook to perfection and schooled them with their own text books.  However, the Bruins can play that game, too.  And more.  And they have a giant.  Zdeno Chara is like something out of a Dungeons & Dragons book.  He has plus everything, a six foot club of wood and razors strapped to his feet.  You try and tell him he’s going to lose.  Won’t happen.

X-Factors: Pronger is a big, bad defenseman but Chara is bigger, badder and can eat most of the Flyers as appetizers.  So, with a healthy Savard, a steady Rask and a freaking giant that turns Flyers into Phili Cheesesteaks, this proves to be a tight series that the Bruins should take because they’ll capitalize on more mistakes.

Prediction: Boston beats Philadelphia 4 games to 2.

San Jose Sharks (1^st in the West, 2^nd Overall) vs. Detroit Red Wings (5^th in the West)

They’re the Sharks.  The fucking sharks.  They eat things.  Flesh things.  Fish.  People.  Boats.  Things with wings aren’t a traditional meal, but they will be this time.  Detroit looked uneven and rather mortal in its first round series against Phoenix.  That’s not going to be good enough to beat San Jose.  They need to look like demi-gods.  They need some Hercules shit going on and they just don’t have it.  Their goalie is a rookie (albeit a very talented one), their defense is aged and their offense lacks depth.  San Jose is a bunch of fucking sharks and Detroit has red jerseys.  Maybe I’m confusing bull fighting and shark circling but you would do the same in my shoes.  San Jose is scary.  They have size, depth, offense, defense, heart, goaltending, experience, determination and something to prove.  And.  They’re fucking sharks.

X-Factors:  Red Wings are weird tires with wings on them.  They can’t really fly and they can’t really roll.  San Jose are sharks.  There’s no x-factors when sharks are involved except Roy Schieder.  And – unless they talk to Stephen King - I don’t believe the Detroit organization has any means to raise the dead.

Prediction: Live every week like it’s a shark week.  Sharks win in 6.  I realize Detroit will only have red jerseys for games 1, 2 & 5 but use your imagination.  Maybe someone will bleed in game 4.

Chicago Blackhawks (2^st in the West) vs. Vancouver Canucks (3^rd in the West)

This should be the closest series in the quarter finals.  The last several years the most formidable looking teams always seem to have come from the west and this year is no exception.  Vancouver has been here many times before with a very similar looking team.  So they certainly have the experience nod.  And their goalie, Luongo, seems to be getting more and more comfortable in high pressure situations.  So, I give the goaltending nod to Vancouver as well.  But depth, grit, offense & defense all go to the Blackhawks.  It’s not the native in me that feels the pull to Chicago.  It’s the hockey lover.  These guys are a young, amazing, hungry squad.  They are spectacular to watch.  They have heart, arrogance, skill, dazzle, showmanship, physicality and – most importantly – desire.  And they were here last year.  Right here.  They played Vancouver in the quarter finals and lost in 6 games.  I’m sure 75% of them remember it very well because the team hasn’t changed that much.  They’ve learned from that and they’re ready to go the distance this year.  Toews, Sharp, Campbell, Kane, Byfuglien, Keith, Seabrook.  This team is stacked.  They look like Pittsburgh did two years ago when they went to the cup finals and lost to the older, wiser Red Wings.  I think Chicago could pull off a similar coup this year.  If they don’t get eaten by fucking sharks.

X-Factors:  Goaltending is the only question mark for Chicago.  Their goalies are steady but unspectacular.  Neither Niemi or Huet has earned the outright honour of starting goalie.  It’s been a team effort.  And, playing a team like the Canucks who heap a great deal of their burden on Luongo, that may not be good enough if Vancouver can get their offense fired up.

Prediction: Chicago will win this hard fought battle in 7 games.